Home > Resource Center > In the News Home > Greenbelt Alliance in the News

Greenbelt Alliance In the News

August 21, 2002

Eastward flow of upscale jobs not foreseen for Contra Costa

Report gives sour look at East County's potential to become self-sustaining

It's a time-tested East Bay storyline: Rising Bay Area housing costs push commuters to the cheaper outskirts. Big companies catch on and build offices where the talent lives. Before long, high-end employment flourishes. Outskirts become inskirts.

The scenario has played out along Interstate 680, up through Pleasanton and San Ramon. It's starting to play along I-580, through Livermore to Tracy. But it won't play in East Contra Costa. Not now, not decades from now. So get over it.

That's the message from a new report that takes a regional look at the potential for job and real estate growth in Contra Costa, and finds the eastern fringes wanting.

The report, from Strategic Economics in Berkeley, argues that the kind of employers some East County leaders hope to attract -- research and development, software, biotech and other high-end ventures -- will continue moving east toward Livermore and Tracy, or elsewhere, before sniffing around Antioch, Oakley or Brentwood.

The report was commissioned by Shaping Our Futures, an effort by all 19 Contra Costa cities and the county to develop a regional outlook and map out planning options. The implications are significant for an area with the county's lowest ratio of jobs to residents, and where over 70,000 more residents than jobs are expected to arrive by 2025.

East County elected officials dismissed the findings as a clanking echo of old stereotypes that ignore a bigger vision. "It's a slap in the face to eastern Contra Costa, where we're spending millions to put in the infrastructure to encourage commercial development," said Antioch Mayor Don Freitas. "The biggest challenge we have is getting rid of this faulty thinking."

A bigger obstacle, according to the report, is thinking that land-rich East County is a natural place for a new wave of high-end jobs. East County will continue to see growth in retail, construction and other services that cater to one of the state's fastest-growing areas. But it won't draw many so-called "basic" jobs, those that help build a regional economic base, the report says. If the county wants to corral those jobs, Concord and other Central County cities must carry the load, the report suggests. Indeed, West Contra Costa holds more potential than East County, despite a relative lack of developable land, the report suggests.

"East County does not appear to be in a position to compete with other sub-areas for these jobs," the report says.

One key reason is poor access to interstate highways, said Robert McCleary, executive director of the Contra Costa Transportation Authority.

"The areas they're competing with are Vacaville, Davis, Roseville, Rocklin," said McCleary. "Those areas all have better access than East County and perhaps greater proximity to the kinds of amenities that can compete very well.

"Without additional access to and from East County, the perception is it's a cul-de-sac."

East County officials are plotting new ways to make it more attractive. Among them is a renewed bid for a north-south bypass to Tracy, to link East County with I-580 and I-5 truck routes. Some, including Rep. Ellen Tauscher, D-Alamo, and state Sen. Tom Torlakson, D-Antioch, are eyeing expansion of the Byron airport to accommodate cargo jets.

How the report might sway land-use decisions remains to be seen, said Don Blubaugh, the former Walnut Creek city manager who manages the $750,000 Shaping Our Future initiative.

"We're going to need some time to chew," said Blubaugh. "Do we just resign ourselves, or what steps do we need to take?

John Landis, a UC Berkeley professor of city and regional planning, called the sour East County outlook shortsighted, citing estimates that the Bay Area will add a million jobs every 20 years.

"All those (negative) points are true now. I don't know if they're going to be true in 20 years," said Landis. "The long-term trend is to go where land is cheap, and that suggests some of these areas will grow into job centers. Never say never."

###